Skip to content

The Harvard Gazette 樱花app污下载安装

On the brink of war那曲干瑞同设备有限公司

水晶直播成版人 Unlearning racial bias 乌鲁木齐永裕弘服务有限公司

National & World Affairs 铁岭金千中商贸有限公司

樱花app污下载安装

名优馆app污下载安装

National & World Affairs 扶余复欣万机械有限公司

樱花app污下载安装

Mourners attend the funeral procession of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who was killed in a drone attack on Friday.

Reuters/Abdullah Dhiaa al-Deen

包头谦大美服务有限公司

The killing of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a powerful figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in a drone attack Friday ordered by President Trump has triggered a cascade of potentially incendiary consequences.

In the days after the deadly attack Trump exchanged retaliatory threats with Iranian officials on social media. On Sunday, Tehran announced it would no longer honor stockpiling and processing limits on nuclear materials at the heart of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the official name of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Though Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in May 2018, Iran’s decision is widely viewed as a deliberate escalation of tension aimed at the White House.

Leaders from the European Union, which is still a party to the nuclear deal and hopes to salvage it, determined Monday that Iran’s recent violations did not warrant the imposition of new sanctions.

As U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman spent two years brokering the historic nuclear pact as lead negotiator for the U.S. She’s now director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard Kennedy School. Sherman discusses the tinderbox state of affairs between Iran and the U.S.

太原瑞永永有限公司

永安聚飞华商贸有限公司

GAZETTE: There seem to be mixed signals coming out of Iran following the announcement. Foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif said Iran would continue to allow inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From your vantage point, where do things stand right now?

SHERMAN: Certainly, the Iranians saying that they will no longer respect the limits of action is not a good thing. Nonetheless, they have not formally withdrawn from the deal. They are allowing the IAEA inspectors to stay. They have said any steps they’ll take will be for technical needs and that they are all reversible, and that they would be open to returning to the deal if economic sanctions were lifted. So this isn’t good news, of course, but it could have been worse.

GAZETTE: In terms of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which was a primary goal of the JCPOA, is the world still under the deal’s umbrella protection or are we on the precipice of going back to where we started before there was a deal?

SHERMAN: I think the deal is hanging on by a very, very thin thread. And although Iran has said it’s ready to come back in, it appears that the Trump administration is doing everything it can to make it quite difficult for Iran to come to the table. The choice has always been a deal to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or an unrestricted nuclear program and a form of war. The president, for now, has chosen the latter.

GAZETTE: So there’s still room for diplomacy?

SHERMAN: There is still room for diplomacy, but there are no signs of diplomacy at the moment. The Trump administration seems to be on an escalatory path, particularly [with] the killing of Qassim Suleimani, and Iran will indeed respond. None of us quite know how or when that will happen. It will be asymmetric in its response and hopefully the administration will then try to open a channel for diplomacy as opposed to continuing an escalatory cycle, which would likely spiral out of control and find us at war.

媚妹秀成版人

"The United States has issued alerts for American citizens worldwide and, more specifically, in particular countries. So we are on greatly heightened alert all over the world, and it is of tremendous concern," said Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman.

Stephanie Mitchell/Harvard file photo

GAZETTE: What will be the determinative factor? Is it Trump’s behavior or the success of whoever is at the negotiating table or something else?

SHERMAN: There are multiple pieces here. Iran is not a good player here either. They have been attacking Americans. Interestingly, while the deal was fully in place, there were no rocket attacks by Iran. But since the president pulled out of the deal, those attacks and asymmetric actions of Iran have increased. The hardliners, or as I call them, the hard, hardliners, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Quds force that Qassim Suleimani headed up, have been in control of Iran’s foreign policy and military policy and so Iran has been part of this escalatory cycle, as well. But the killing of Qassim Suleimani has accelerated this spiral quite considerably and how Iran responds and then how Trump responds to that will determine whether there’s any path back to a negotiating table or whether we are headed toward conflict.

GAZETTE: On Sunday, Secretary of State Pompeo described Iran’s calls for retaliation as “a little noise.” How likely is Iran to follow through on its threats and what kinds of actions would they likely have in mind to satisfy a desire for payback for Suleimani’s death?

SHERMAN:  They have said they would certainly take action against military sites of the United States, but added [Monday] that they are not limited to military sites. There’s some concern that they will use cyber as a tool. They have a lot of options on the ground. There are any number of soft targets around the world, including in our own country, that could see retaliation, so they will pick a time and place and method of their choosing, and they mean to keep everybody on guard as this proceeds forward. We’ve seen several countries issue alerts for their citizens. The United States has issued alerts for American citizens worldwide and, more specifically, in particular countries. So we are on greatly heightened alert all over the world, and it is of tremendous concern.

GAZETTE: Broadly, what are some of the immediate and longer-range dangers this situation poses to the U.S. and our allies? What are some of the potential worst-case scenarios?

SHERMAN: Clearly, the worst-case scenario is that we’re headed to war, and war would be horrific. The United States’ conventional capability is much greater than Iran’s. There’s no doubt about it. And so, in conventional terms, there’s no question we would win such a war. But Iran has many asymmetric capabilities, and we have seen in other theaters where we overmatched our opponents, our opponents sometimes use asymmetric warfare. It happened, quite frankly, in Vietnam, [and] that really makes it quite difficult for us to prevail in the way that we wish to. So I have no question about America’s military strength. We are unparalleled in conventional terms, and we can do any number of things. I do think, however, that the president’s tweets about cultural sites, about going after citizens after doing whatever he feels is necessary, is not only provocative, but, in many instances, [would be] illegal under international law and considered war crimes.

GAZETTE: Who benefits from a conflict with Iran? Oil prices are already up, and analysts predict they could double. China and Russia have harshly criticized the U.S. actions, more strongly than allies like the U.K. and France. Could we see an alliance of convenience between Russia, China, and Iran and what would that mean for the world?

SHERMAN: The alliance of convenience already exists, and it could grow deeper over this. So they stand to gain. But I don’t think anyone in the world stands to gain if there’s conflict in the Middle East because it will undermine the global economy as well the U.S. economy. I think it will have a downward effect for everyone. And obviously, there will be unintended consequences that none of us can imagine and quite terrible ones.

GAZETTE:  Clearly, this a very volatile, fast-moving situation that’s hard to predict.

SHERMAN: Yes, I think it will change dramatically. A month ago, there were anti-regime protesters in Iran; there were anti-Iranian protesters in Baghdad. Today, all of the protesters are anti-American. I don’t know how any of this has made the U.S. safer, as Secretary Pompeo said all day [Sunday]. It has not; it has made us all much more at risk. Ironically, President Trump has told us that he didn’t trust our intelligence community for months and months and months. And now, he says that the intelligence sent to him [persuaded him] to take this action, but he can’t tell us what that intelligence was. So we are in an upside-down world where I hope the U.S. Congress takes action to slow the president down before he hurls us into war.

This interview has been edited for clarity and condensed for length.

泰安升升欣设备有限公司

Wendy Sherman appointed professor and director at HKS丽水永元利设备有限公司

Will succeed David Gergen at Center for Public Leadership

Inside the Iran nuclear deal驻马店升鑫大服务有限公司

Lead negotiator Wendy Sherman, now at the Kennedy School, explains how a key agreement was crafted

小小影视app污下载安装 蜜柚app污下载安装 七秒鱼直播成版人 秀色直播app污下载安装 啪嗒视频成版人 快狐短视频app下载免费 恋夜秀场app下载免费 富二代成版人 香蜜直播成版人 荔枝app下载免费 压寨直播app污下载安装 快播破解成版人 菠萝菠萝蜜视频成版人 葫芦娃视频app下载免费 午夜直播间成版人 橘子视频app污下载安装 鸭脖视频app下载免费 粉色app污下载安装 野花视频app污下载安装 秀色小抖音成版人 佳丽直播视频成版人 fi11含羞草app污下载安装 抖阴app下载免费 快播破解app下载免费 梦幻直播app下载免费 福利直播app污下载安装 avgoapp污下载安装 棉花糖直播app污下载安装 含羞草实验研究所成版人 卡哇伊直播成版人 花心视频app下载免费 恋夜秀场app下载免费 花秀神器app下载免费 ML聚合直播成版人 月夜直播成版人 柚子直播app下载免费 芭乐视频app下载免费 千层浪视频app下载免费 木瓜视频app污下载安装 初恋视频app下载免费 探探直播app下载免费 抖阴app污下载安装 小草视频成版人 享受直播app下载免费 红玫瑰直播app下载免费 朵朵直播app下载免费 花心视频成版人 后宫视频app下载免费 iAVBOBOapp污下载安装 樱花直播app下载免费 菠萝蜜成版人 黄瓜视频人app下载免费 和欢视频app下载免费 花秀神器成版人 茶馆视频成版人 草莓视频成版人 小花螺直播app下载免费 樱花直播app污下载安装 含羞草视频app下载免费 美岁直播app下载免费 番茄视频成版人 芭乐app下载免费 佳丽直播app下载免费 花友直播app污下载安装 小宝贝直播app下载免费 蝶恋花直播app下载免费 青青草app下载免费 快猫app下载免费 咪咪直播app下载免费 恋夜秀场app污下载安装 香蕉app污下载安装 望月直播app污下载安装 水果视频app污下载安装 比心直播app污下载安装 小草视频app污下载安装 9uu成版人 夜夜直播成版人 云上花成版人 花粥直播app污下载安装 香草视频app污下载安装 媚妹秀成版人 樱花视频app下载免费 大西瓜视频app污下载安装 69视频成版人 恋人直播app下载免费 米老鼠直播app污下载安装 丝瓜成版人 夜夜直播app下载免费 小蝌蚪视频app下载免费 香草成视频人app下载免费 西瓜直播成版人 粉色视频app下载免费 花姿直播app下载免费 水蜜桃app下载免费 一对一直播成版人 大菠萝app污下载安装 香草视频app污下载安装 花友直播app污下载安装 朵朵直播app下载免费 铁牛视频app下载免费 比心app下载免费 尤蜜视频app污下载安装 冈本成版人 f2富二代app下载免费 7秒鱼直播成版人 花仙子直播成版人 本色视频成版人 黄色直播软件app污下载安装 初见直播app下载免费 云上花成版人 比心直播app下载免费 西瓜直播app污下载安装 夜猫视频成版人 冈本视频app下载免费 月光直播app污下载安装 大小姐直播app下载免费 兔子直播成版人 香蜜直播app污下载安装 后宫app下载免费 夜巴黎直播成版人 月光宝盒直播成版人 lutube成版人 微啪app下载免费 快狐短视频app污下载安装 金鱼直播app下载免费 91香蕉成版人 宅男之家app污下载安装 卖肉直播app下载免费 黄瓜app下载免费 月亮直播app下载免费 杏吧直播app污下载安装 雨云直播app污下载安装 秋葵视频app污下载安装 桃花直播成版人 快播破解app污下载安装 豆奶app下载免费 小花螺直播成版人 鲍鱼视频成版人 男人本色西瓜视频app污下载安装 JAV名优馆成版人 向日葵成版人 色秀直播app下载免费 彩云直播app下载免费 本色视频app下载免费 小可爱成版人 iavboboapp污下载安装 秋葵视频app污下载安装 樱花直播app下载免费 丝瓜草莓视频app污下载安装 红娘直播app污下载安装 牛牛视频成版人 Huluwaapp下载免费 鸭脖视频成版人 火爆社区app下载免费 番茄视频app下载免费 探探直播成版人 春水堂视频成版人 仙人掌app污下载安装 欢喜视频app污下载安装 花样视频成版人 香蕉app污下载安装 ML聚合直播成版人 雨云直播app下载免费 左手视频app污下载安装 青青草app下载免费 夜遇直播号app污下载安装 鸭脖视频成版人 小米粒直播app下载免费 红娘直播app下载免费 可乐视频成版人 和欢视频app污下载安装 小优成版人 烟花巷app下载免费 秀儿直播app污下载安装 主播福利app下载免费 遇见直播app污下载安装 丝瓜app污下载安装 樱桃成版人 AVBOBO成版人 污直播app下载免费 佳丽直播视频成版人 樱桃直播app下载免费 6房间视频直播app污下载安装 幸福宝app下载免费 樱花雨直播app下载免费 红杏视频成版人 Huluwaapp污下载安装 小宝贝直播app下载免费 樱花视频成版人 大菠萝app污下载安装 秀儿直播成版人 青青草app下载免费 彩云直播成版人 小怪兽app污下载安装 朵朵直播app污下载安装 微杏app下载免费 丝瓜视频污app污下载安装 金鱼直播app下载免费 水晶直播成版人 豆奶app污下载安装 成人直播app污下载安装 比心直播app污下载安装 成版人短视频成版人 小仙女app污下载安装 初恋视频成版人 名优馆app下载免费 骚虎直播app下载免费 小酒窝直播app污下载安装 快狐app下载免费 恋人直播成版人 老王视频成版人 小花螺直播app污下载安装 草榴视频app污下载安装 金屋藏娇直播间成版人 本色视频app下载免费 芭乐app下载免费 冈本成版人 金鱼直播成版人 夜猫视频成版人 小蝌蚪视频app污下载安装 月亮直播app下载免费 红高粱直播app污下载安装 猫咪软件成版人 四虎app污下载安装 豆奶视频成版人 冈本app污下载安装 蝴蝶直播成版人 香蕉成版人 黄瓜视频成版人 可乐视频成版人 黄页荔枝成版人 九尾狐直播app污下载安装 小仙女成版人 含羞草视频app下载免费 向日葵app污下载安装 一对一直播app下载免费 茄子直播成版人 草莓视频成版人 卡哇伊app污下载安装 麻豆传媒直播成版人 菠萝蜜视频app下载免费 f2富二代成版人 菠萝蜜视频成版人 探探直播app下载免费 嘿嘿连载app污下载安装 d2天堂app下载免费 蝶恋花直播成版人 千层浪直播app下载免费 大番号成版人 木瓜视频成版人 黄瓜直播app污下载安装 恋人直播成版人 香蕉app下载免费 小宝贝直播app污下载安装 橙子视频成版人 四虎app污下载安装 茄子app污下载安装 丝瓜草莓视频app下载免费 小狐仙直播app下载免费 樱花app污下载安装 成版人茄子视频成版人 性直播app污下载安装 爱爱视频app污下载安装 恋人直播app污下载安装 橘子视频app下载免费 梦鹿直播app下载免费 佳丽直播视频成版人 香草成视频人成版人 番茄社区成版人 月夜直播app下载免费 樱桃直播成版人 成版人快手app污下载安装 樱花雨直播成版人 浪浪视频app污下载安装 夜魅直播app污下载安装 91香蕉视频成版人 春水堂视频成版人 水仙直播app污下载安装 小狐仙视频app下载免费 盘他app下载免费 葡萄视频app下载免费 梦幻直播app下载免费 成版人快手app下载免费 樱花成版人 抖阴视频成版人 微啪成版人 大西瓜视频app下载免费 小酒窝直播app污下载安装 丝瓜app污下载安装 月亮视频app污下载安装 遇见直播app下载免费 小仙女app下载免费 望月直播成版人 黄色直播软件app污下载安装 享受直播app污下载安装 和欢视频成版人 尤蜜app污下载安装 桃花直播app下载免费 咪咪直播成版人 彩色直播app污下载安装 桃花app污下载安装